Loading paths...
Loading constants...
Loading function...
Loading data 'survey.csv'...
      y      ptyid                   cue       cueg       n      freq     stdev        lo        hi   nlabel
<int64>   <object>              <object> <category> <int64> <float64> <float64> <float64> <float64> <object>
      1   Democrat Anti-populist Message      Biden      89 78.070175  3.875321 70.474545 85.665805     n=89
      1   Democrat Anti-populist Message    Control      83 57.241379  4.108496 49.188727 65.294032     n=83
      1   Democrat Anti-populist Message      Trump      37 31.355932  4.270909 22.984950 39.726915     n=37
      1   Democrat      Populist Message      Biden      92 92.929293  2.576263 87.879818 97.978768     n=92
      1   Democrat      Populist Message    Control     137 83.030303  2.922223 77.302746 88.757860    n=137
      1   Democrat      Populist Message      Trump      69 51.492537  4.317417 43.030399 59.954675     n=69
      1 Republican Anti-populist Message      Biden      12 20.000000  5.163978  9.878604 30.121396     n=12
      1 Republican Anti-populist Message    Control      68 56.198347  4.510392 47.357978 65.038716     n=68
      1 Republican Anti-populist Message      Trump      61 72.619048  4.865303 63.083053 82.155042     n=61
      1 Republican      Populist Message      Biden      48 57.142857  5.399492 46.559852 67.725862     n=48
      1 Republican      Populist Message    Control      97 85.840708  3.279655 79.412584 92.268832     n=97
      1 Republican      Populist Message      Trump      69 85.185185  3.947186 77.448700 92.921671     n=69
Running model Pop-Dem...
Running model Pop-Dem (with controls)...
Running model Pop-Rep...
Running model Pop-Rep (with controls)...
Running model APop-Dem...
Running model APop-Dem (with controls)...
Running model APop-Rep...
Running model APop-Rep (with controls)...
                           Pop-Dem Pop-Dem (with controls)          Pop-Rep Pop-Rep (with controls)         APop-Dem APop-Dem (with controls)         APop-Rep APop-Rep (with controls)
         <object>         <object>                <object>         <object>                <object>         <object>                 <object>         <object>                 <object>
        cuegBiden           0.988*                   0.753        -1.514***               -1.476***         0.978***                   0.797*        -1.636***                -1.971***
                    (0.170, 1.933)         (-0.115, 1.732) (-2.219, -0.847)        (-2.245, -0.748)   (0.435, 1.543)           (0.180, 1.436) (-2.399, -0.935)         (-2.920, -1.131)
        cuegTrump        -1.528***               -1.612***           -0.053                   0.036        -1.075***                -1.380***           0.726*                   0.651+
                  (-2.069, -1.008)        (-2.235, -1.018)  (-0.858, 0.775)         (-0.837, 0.940) (-1.592, -0.572)         (-1.989, -0.795)   (0.136, 1.337)          (-0.008, 1.332)
   `Income (std)`                                    0.023                                    0.189                                     0.130                                     0.110
                                           (-0.236, 0.305)                          (-0.145, 0.562)                           (-0.126, 0.392)                           (-0.269, 0.485)
      `Age (std)`                                  -0.275+                                   -0.096                                   -0.258*                                   -0.412*
                                           (-0.589, 0.032)                          (-0.438, 0.244)                          (-0.517, -0.003)                          (-0.760, -0.077)
`Education (std)`                                  -0.319*                                   -0.085                                   -0.274*                                     0.109
                                          (-0.625, -0.023)                          (-0.445, 0.276)                          (-0.545, -0.005)                           (-0.220, 0.442)
   `Race (white)`                                    0.193                                   -0.874                                    -0.339                                  -2.353**
                                           (-0.480, 0.864)                          (-2.400, 0.326)                           (-0.892, 0.206)                          (-4.014, -1.012)
  `Gender (male)`                                   0.779*                                   -0.169                                   0.827**                                     0.062
                                            (0.184, 1.397)                          (-0.850, 0.515)                            (0.314, 1.350)                           (-0.568, 0.691)
 `Ideology (std)`                                   0.296+                                    0.164                                   0.451**                                     0.365
                                           (-0.026, 0.630)                          (-0.308, 0.634)                            (0.166, 0.750)                           (-0.098, 0.840)
         Num.Obs.              398                     346              278                     256              377                      336              265                      237
              AIC            392.5                   330.9            280.9                   257.6            470.7                    391.2            330.5                    285.6
              BIC            404.5                   365.5            291.7                   289.5            482.5                    425.5            341.3                    316.8
         Log.Lik.         -193.255                -156.463         -137.429                -119.815         -232.333                 -186.591         -162.272                 -133.813
                F           26.438                   6.875           12.325                   2.842           23.597                    7.788           17.129                    4.902
             RMSE             0.99                    0.96             1.00                    0.98             1.11                     1.07             1.11                     1.08
       Std.Errors        Classical               Classical        Classical               Classical        Classical                Classical        Classical                Classical
   model        term  estimate  conf.low  conf.high      odds  odds.low  odds.high  perc_change  perc_change.low  perc_change.high
<object>    <object> <float64> <float64>  <float64> <float64> <float64>  <float64>    <float64>        <float64>         <float64>
 Pop-Dem (Intercept)  1.587776  1.197951   2.014136  4.892857  3.313321   7.494251   389.285714       231.332093        649.425148
 Pop-Dem   cuegBiden  0.988102  0.169611   1.933457  2.686131  1.184844   6.913370   168.613139        18.484378        591.337049
 Pop-Dem   cuegTrump -1.528057 -2.069058  -1.008204  0.216957  0.126305   0.364874   -78.304323       -87.369533        -63.512621
   model        term  estimate  conf.low  conf.high      odds  odds.low  odds.high  perc_change  perc_change.low  perc_change.high
<object>    <object> <float64> <float64>  <float64> <float64> <float64>  <float64>    <float64>        <float64>         <float64>
APop-Dem (Intercept)  0.291706 -0.035422   0.624082  1.338710  0.965198   1.866532    33.870968        -3.480191         86.653186
APop-Dem   cuegBiden  0.978054  0.435211   1.543016  2.659277  1.545289   4.678680   165.927711        54.528855        367.868036
APop-Dem   cuegTrump -1.075237 -1.592061  -0.571616  0.341217  0.203506   0.564612   -65.878328       -79.649433        -43.538799
   model        term  estimate  conf.low  conf.high      odds  odds.low  odds.high  perc_change  perc_change.low  perc_change.high
<object>    <object> <float64> <float64>  <float64> <float64> <float64>  <float64>    <float64>        <float64>         <float64>
 Pop-Rep (Intercept)  1.802122  1.303302   2.368278  6.062500  3.681431  10.678988   506.250000       268.143132        967.898769
 Pop-Rep   cuegBiden -1.514440 -2.219009  -0.846811  0.219931  0.108717   0.428780   -78.006873       -89.128318        -57.122002
 Pop-Rep   cuegTrump -0.052922 -0.858424   0.775127  0.948454  0.423829   2.170867    -5.154639       -57.617058        117.086687
   model        term  estimate  conf.low  conf.high      odds  odds.low  odds.high  perc_change  perc_change.low  perc_change.high
<object>    <object> <float64> <float64>  <float64> <float64> <float64>  <float64>    <float64>        <float64>         <float64>
APop-Rep (Intercept)  0.249216 -0.108209   0.611996  1.283019  0.897440   1.844108    28.301887       -10.256016         84.410790
APop-Rep   cuegBiden -1.635510 -2.399028  -0.934728  0.194853  0.090806   0.392693   -80.514706       -90.919385        -60.730743
APop-Rep   cuegTrump  0.726164  0.135501   1.337358  2.067136  1.145110   3.808968   106.713555        14.511007        280.896769
        y     cueg model_id      pred     lower     upper
<float64> <object> <object> <float64> <float64> <float64>
      NaN    Trump APop-Dem  0.313559  0.236415  0.402605
      NaN  Control APop-Dem  0.572414  0.490677  0.650379
      NaN    Biden APop-Dem  0.780702  0.695533  0.847277
        y     cueg model_id      pred     lower     upper
<float64> <object> <object> <float64> <float64> <float64>
      NaN  Control APop-Rep  0.561983  0.472550  0.647563
      NaN    Trump APop-Rep  0.726190  0.621472  0.810760
      NaN    Biden APop-Rep  0.200000  0.117236  0.320012
                         Pop-Dem Pop-Dem (with controls)         APop-Dem APop-Dem (with controls)
       <object>         <object>                <object>         <object>                 <object>
     Cue: Biden           0.988*                   0.753         0.978***                   0.797*
                  (0.170, 1.933)         (-0.115, 1.732)   (0.435, 1.543)           (0.180, 1.436)
     Cue: Trump        -1.528***               -1.612***        -1.075***                -1.380***
                (-2.069, -1.008)        (-2.235, -1.018) (-1.592, -0.572)         (-1.989, -0.795)
   Income (std)                                    0.023                                     0.130
                                         (-0.236, 0.305)                           (-0.126, 0.392)
      Age (std)                                  -0.275+                                   -0.258*
                                         (-0.589, 0.032)                          (-0.517, -0.003)
Education (std)                                  -0.319*                                   -0.274*
                                        (-0.625, -0.023)                          (-0.545, -0.005)
   Race (white)                                    0.193                                    -0.339
                                         (-0.480, 0.864)                           (-0.892, 0.206)
  Gender (male)                                   0.779*                                   0.827**
                                          (0.184, 1.397)                            (0.314, 1.350)
 Ideology (std)                                   0.296+                                   0.451**
                                         (-0.026, 0.630)                            (0.166, 0.750)
       Num.Obs.              398                     346              377                      336
            AIC            392.5                   330.9            470.7                    391.2
            BIC            404.5                   365.5            482.5                    425.5
       Log.Lik.         -193.255                -156.463         -232.333                 -186.591
              F           26.438                   6.875           23.597                    7.788
           RMSE             0.99                    0.96             1.11                     1.07
     Std.Errors        Classical               Classical        Classical                Classical
                         Pop-Rep Pop-Rep (with controls)         APop-Rep APop-Rep (with controls)
       <object>         <object>                <object>         <object>                 <object>
     Cue: Biden        -1.514***               -1.476***        -1.636***                -1.971***
                (-2.219, -0.847)        (-2.245, -0.748) (-2.399, -0.935)         (-2.920, -1.131)
     Cue: Trump           -0.053                   0.036           0.726*                   0.651+
                 (-0.858, 0.775)         (-0.837, 0.940)   (0.136, 1.337)          (-0.008, 1.332)
   Income (std)                                    0.189                                     0.110
                                         (-0.145, 0.562)                           (-0.269, 0.485)
      Age (std)                                   -0.096                                   -0.412*
                                         (-0.438, 0.244)                          (-0.760, -0.077)
Education (std)                                   -0.085                                     0.109
                                         (-0.445, 0.276)                           (-0.220, 0.442)
   Race (white)                                   -0.874                                  -2.353**
                                         (-2.400, 0.326)                          (-4.014, -1.012)
  Gender (male)                                   -0.169                                     0.062
                                         (-0.850, 0.515)                           (-0.568, 0.691)
 Ideology (std)                                    0.164                                     0.365
                                         (-0.308, 0.634)                           (-0.098, 0.840)
       Num.Obs.              278                     256              265                      237
            AIC            280.9                   257.6            330.5                    285.6
            BIC            291.7                   289.5            341.3                    316.8
       Log.Lik.         -137.429                -119.815         -162.272                 -133.813
              F           12.325                   2.842           17.129                    4.902
           RMSE             1.00                    0.98             1.11                     1.08
     Std.Errors        Classical               Classical        Classical                Classical
Running model Populist Message...
Running model Populist Message (with controls)...
Running model Anti-populist Message...
Running model Anti-populist Message (with controls)...
                                                  Populist Message Populist Message (with controls) Anti-populist Message Anti-populist Message (with controls)
                                         <object>         <object>                         <object>              <object>                              <object>
                                        cuegBiden           -0.214                           -0.281                -0.281                               -0.441*
                                                   (-0.641, 0.226)                  (-0.751, 0.204)       (-0.663, 0.094)                      (-0.869, -0.022)
                                        cuegTrump        -0.733***                        -0.727***                -0.122                                -0.283
                                                  (-1.121, -0.343)                 (-1.157, -0.297)       (-0.464, 0.222)                       (-0.667, 0.102)
            `Party identification (with leaners)`            0.029                           -0.043                -0.009                                -0.098
                                                   (-0.083, 0.143)                  (-0.190, 0.104)       (-0.100, 0.081)                       (-0.219, 0.020)
cuegBiden × `Party identification (with leaners)`        -0.437***                        -0.444***             -0.491***                             -0.496***
                                                  (-0.627, -0.256)                 (-0.654, -0.244)      (-0.662, -0.327)                      (-0.683, -0.318)
cuegTrump × `Party identification (with leaners)`          0.261**                          0.285**              0.380***                              0.397***
                                                    (0.098, 0.426)                   (0.104, 0.468)        (0.231, 0.532)                        (0.233, 0.565)
                                   `Income (std)`                                             0.075                                                       0.139
                                                                                    (-0.097, 0.257)                                             (-0.053, 0.333)
                                      `Age (std)`                                           -0.165+                                                    -0.231**
                                                                                    (-0.355, 0.024)                                            (-0.405, -0.059)
                                `Education (std)`                                            -0.159                                                      -0.100
                                                                                    (-0.351, 0.031)                                             (-0.283, 0.082)
                                   `Race (white)`                                            -0.225                                                    -0.619**
                                                                                    (-0.724, 0.257)                                            (-1.049, -0.197)
                                  `Gender (male)`                                            0.432*                                                    0.593***
                                                                                     (0.062, 0.808)                                              (0.257, 0.932)
                                 `Ideology (std)`                                           0.324**                                                     0.362**
                                                                                     (0.081, 0.573)                                              (0.140, 0.589)
                                         Num.Obs.              878                              780                   834                                   727
                                              AIC            943.3                            802.4                1060.4                                 882.8
                                              BIC            972.0                            858.3                1088.8                                 937.9
                                         Log.Lik.         -465.653                         -389.218              -524.216                              -429.400
                                                F           16.390                            7.890                17.667                                10.051
                                             RMSE             1.03                             1.01                  1.13                                  1.10
                                       Std.Errors        Classical                        Classical             Classical                             Classical
                Populist Message Populist Message (with controls) Anti-populist Message Anti-populist Message (with controls)
       <object>         <object>                         <object>              <object>                              <object>
          Biden           -0.214                           -0.281                -0.281                               -0.441*
                 (-0.641, 0.226)                  (-0.751, 0.204)       (-0.663, 0.094)                      (-0.869, -0.022)
          Trump        -0.733***                        -0.727***                -0.122                                -0.283
                (-1.121, -0.343)                 (-1.157, -0.297)       (-0.464, 0.222)                       (-0.667, 0.102)
        Pty Id.            0.029                           -0.043                -0.009                                -0.098
                 (-0.083, 0.143)                  (-0.190, 0.104)       (-0.100, 0.081)                       (-0.219, 0.020)
Biden × Pty Id.        -0.437***                        -0.444***             -0.491***                             -0.496***
                (-0.627, -0.256)                 (-0.654, -0.244)      (-0.662, -0.327)                      (-0.683, -0.318)
Trump × Pty Id.          0.261**                          0.285**              0.380***                              0.397***
                  (0.098, 0.426)                   (0.104, 0.468)        (0.231, 0.532)                        (0.233, 0.565)
   Income (std)                                             0.075                                                       0.139
                                                  (-0.097, 0.257)                                             (-0.053, 0.333)
      Age (std)                                           -0.165+                                                    -0.231**
                                                  (-0.355, 0.024)                                            (-0.405, -0.059)
Education (std)                                            -0.159                                                      -0.100
                                                  (-0.351, 0.031)                                             (-0.283, 0.082)
   Race (white)                                            -0.225                                                    -0.619**
                                                  (-0.724, 0.257)                                            (-1.049, -0.197)
  Gender (male)                                            0.432*                                                    0.593***
                                                   (0.062, 0.808)                                              (0.257, 0.932)
 Ideology (std)                                           0.324**                                                     0.362**
                                                   (0.081, 0.573)                                              (0.140, 0.589)
       Num.Obs.              878                              780                   834                                   727
            AIC            943.3                            802.4                1060.4                                 882.8
            BIC            972.0                            858.3                1088.8                                 937.9
       Log.Lik.         -465.653                         -389.218              -524.216                              -429.400
              F           16.390                            7.890                17.667                                10.051
           RMSE             1.03                             1.01                  1.13                                  1.10
     Std.Errors        Classical                        Classical             Classical                             Classical
Running model Pop-Dem...
Running model Pop-Dem (with controls)...
Running model Pop-Rep...
Running model Pop-Rep (with controls)...
Running model APop-Dem...
Running model APop-Dem (with controls)...
Running model APop-Rep...
Running model APop-Rep (with controls)...
                          Pop-Dem Pop-Dem (with controls)         Pop-Rep Pop-Rep (with controls)        APop-Dem APop-Dem (with controls)        APop-Rep APop-Rep (with controls)
         <object>        <object>                <object>        <object>                <object>        <object>                 <object>        <object>                 <object>
        cuegBiden          -0.172                  -0.192           0.000                   0.001          -0.100                   -0.047        0.587***                  0.540**
                  (-0.454, 0.110)         (-0.483, 0.100) (-0.306, 0.306)         (-0.302, 0.304) (-0.368, 0.168)          (-0.325, 0.231)  (0.255, 0.919)           (0.198, 0.883)
        cuegTrump          -0.008                   0.026         -0.293+                 -0.292+          -0.041                    0.065           0.014                    0.085
                  (-0.266, 0.250)         (-0.237, 0.290) (-0.602, 0.016)         (-0.592, 0.007) (-0.306, 0.225)          (-0.211, 0.342) (-0.285, 0.313)          (-0.226, 0.396)
   `Income (std)`                                 -0.103+                                  -0.008                                    0.038                                   -0.124
                                          (-0.215, 0.008)                         (-0.140, 0.125)                          (-0.079, 0.155)                          (-0.287, 0.039)
      `Age (std)`                                -0.197**                                  -0.018                                  -0.112+                                    0.026
                                         (-0.324, -0.069)                         (-0.152, 0.115)                          (-0.231, 0.006)                          (-0.126, 0.178)
`Education (std)`                                   0.017                                   0.105                                    0.064                                    0.052
                                          (-0.104, 0.137)                         (-0.038, 0.247)                          (-0.060, 0.187)                          (-0.097, 0.201)
   `Race (white)`                                  -0.001                                   0.145                                    0.127                                    0.397
                                          (-0.264, 0.263)                         (-0.278, 0.569)                          (-0.122, 0.376)                          (-0.089, 0.882)
  `Gender (male)`                                  -0.141                                  -0.189                                    0.088                                    0.155
                                          (-0.383, 0.100)                         (-0.457, 0.079)                          (-0.150, 0.325)                          (-0.132, 0.441)
 `Ideology (std)`                               -0.337***                                0.525***                                -0.288***                                  0.350**
                                         (-0.462, -0.211)                          (0.339, 0.711)                         (-0.415, -0.160)                           (0.140, 0.560)
         Num.Obs.             398                     346             278                     256             377                      336             265                      237
               R2           0.004                   0.122           0.015                   0.149           0.001                    0.074           0.050                    0.115
          R2 Adj.          -0.001                   0.102           0.008                   0.121          -0.004                    0.051           0.043                    0.084
              AIC          1231.0                  1039.7           835.8                   740.0          1138.9                   1002.8           792.2                    695.8
              BIC          1246.9                  1078.2           850.3                   775.5          1154.6                   1041.0           806.5                    730.4
         Log.Lik.        -611.478                -509.873        -413.881                -360.015        -565.434                 -491.409        -392.113                 -337.876
                F           0.832                   5.873           2.126                   5.399           0.269                    3.245           6.871                    3.711
             RMSE            1.13                    1.07            1.08                    1.01            1.09                     1.06            1.07                     1.03
       Std.Errors       Classical               Classical       Classical               Classical       Classical                Classical       Classical                Classical
                        Pop-Dem Pop-Dem (with controls)        APop-Dem APop-Dem (with controls)
       <object>        <object>                <object>        <object>                 <object>
     Cue: Biden          -0.172                  -0.192          -0.100                   -0.047
                (-0.454, 0.110)         (-0.483, 0.100) (-0.368, 0.168)          (-0.325, 0.231)
     Cue: Trump          -0.008                   0.026          -0.041                    0.065
                (-0.266, 0.250)         (-0.237, 0.290) (-0.306, 0.225)          (-0.211, 0.342)
   Income (std)                                 -0.103+                                    0.038
                                        (-0.215, 0.008)                          (-0.079, 0.155)
      Age (std)                                -0.197**                                  -0.112+
                                       (-0.324, -0.069)                          (-0.231, 0.006)
Education (std)                                   0.017                                    0.064
                                        (-0.104, 0.137)                          (-0.060, 0.187)
   Race (white)                                  -0.001                                    0.127
                                        (-0.264, 0.263)                          (-0.122, 0.376)
  Gender (male)                                  -0.141                                    0.088
                                        (-0.383, 0.100)                          (-0.150, 0.325)
 Ideology (std)                               -0.337***                                -0.288***
                                       (-0.462, -0.211)                         (-0.415, -0.160)
       Num.Obs.             398                     346             377                      336
             R2           0.004                   0.122           0.001                    0.074
        R2 Adj.          -0.001                   0.102          -0.004                    0.051
            AIC          1231.0                  1039.7          1138.9                   1002.8
            BIC          1246.9                  1078.2          1154.6                   1041.0
       Log.Lik.        -611.478                -509.873        -565.434                 -491.409
              F           0.832                   5.873           0.269                    3.245
           RMSE            1.13                    1.07            1.09                     1.06
     Std.Errors       Classical               Classical       Classical                Classical
                        Pop-Rep Pop-Rep (with controls)        APop-Rep APop-Rep (with controls)
       <object>        <object>                <object>        <object>                 <object>
     Cue: Biden           0.000                   0.001        0.587***                  0.540**
                (-0.306, 0.306)         (-0.302, 0.304)  (0.255, 0.919)           (0.198, 0.883)
     Cue: Trump         -0.293+                 -0.292+           0.014                    0.085
                (-0.602, 0.016)         (-0.592, 0.007) (-0.285, 0.313)          (-0.226, 0.396)
   Income (std)                                  -0.008                                   -0.124
                                        (-0.140, 0.125)                          (-0.287, 0.039)
      Age (std)                                  -0.018                                    0.026
                                        (-0.152, 0.115)                          (-0.126, 0.178)
Education (std)                                   0.105                                    0.052
                                        (-0.038, 0.247)                          (-0.097, 0.201)
   Race (white)                                   0.145                                    0.397
                                        (-0.278, 0.569)                          (-0.089, 0.882)
  Gender (male)                                  -0.189                                    0.155
                                        (-0.457, 0.079)                          (-0.132, 0.441)
 Ideology (std)                                0.525***                                  0.350**
                                         (0.339, 0.711)                           (0.140, 0.560)
       Num.Obs.             278                     256             265                      237
             R2           0.015                   0.149           0.050                    0.115
        R2 Adj.           0.008                   0.121           0.043                    0.084
            AIC           835.8                   740.0           792.2                    695.8
            BIC           850.3                   775.5           806.5                    730.4
       Log.Lik.        -413.881                -360.015        -392.113                 -337.876
              F           2.126                   5.399           6.871                    3.711
           RMSE            1.08                    1.01            1.07                     1.03
     Std.Errors       Classical               Classical       Classical                Classical
Done!
